The International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) has defined two periods of postpancreatectomy hemorrhage, early (<24 h) and late (>24 h). A previously published Blood Usage Risk Score (BURS) aimed to predict early and late blood transfusion. The primary aim of this study was to define risk factors for early and late blood transfusion after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Secondary aims were to assess the predictive accuracy of the BURS.

In this retrospective observational study, multivariable analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for both early and late blood transfusion. The predictive ability of the BURS was then assessed using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Among 628 patients, 99 (15.8%) and 144 (22.9%) received early and late blood transfusion, respectively. Risk factors for blood transfusion differed between early and late periods. Preoperative anemia and venous resection were associated with early blood transfusion whilst Whipple's resection (as opposed to pylorus preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy), lack of biliary stent and a narrow pancreatic duct were predictors of late blood transfusion. The BURS was significantly predictive of early blood transfusion, albeit with a modest degree of accuracy (AUROC: 0.700, P < 0.001), but not of late blood transfusion (AUROC: 0.525, P = 0.360). Late blood transfusion was independently associated with increasing severity of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) (OR: 1.85, 3.18 and 9.97 for biochemical, types B and C POPF, respectively, relative to no POPF).

Two largely different sets of variables are related to early and late blood transfusion following pancreaticoduodenectomy. The BURS was significantly associated with early, albeit with modest predictive accuracy, but not late blood transfusion. An understanding of POPF risk allows assessment of the need for late blood transfusion.